New Horizons

Modern Horizons is coming out this summer. In case you don't know, this is going to be a supplemental product which will contain reprints from pre-Modern sets (before original Mirrodin and 8th Edition), and some new cards. The kicker is that all of the cards printed in this set will be Modern legal. There's tons of speculation on what might get reprinted, so here's my thoughts on the matter. 

Category 1 - No fucking way

Here's the cards that I think will categorically not be moved into Modern. 

True-Name Nemesis: Look, even R&D has admitted that this card is a mistake. It's oppressive in Legacy, and would be a stone cold terror in Modern. 

Brainstorm: This is a no brainer. Ponder and Preordain are already banned in Modern. No Way they redo Brainstorm. 

Hymn to Tourcah: Random discard effect can be extra punishing because they can easily strip lands from your hand. Not gonna happen. 

Chaos Warp: MARO has talked several times about how this is off-color mechanically for Red. 

Wasteland: Aside from the obvious power-level issues, I think they've hit a good balance between the need to deal with non-basic lands and not making land destruction too efficient with Field of Ruin. 

Leovold, Emissary of Trest: Much like Deathrite Shaman, I think Leovold just does too much, too efficiently. Granted, without Force of Will for protection, he's a little more fragile, but I think the power level is still just too high.

Armageddon: Again, efficient land destruction is just not what Wizards wants to do, basically ever again. I wouldn't ever expect to see this in Modern. 

Sylvan Library: As much as I'd love to have this little enchantment in Modern, the complexity of how it functions is just way too messy. It's possible that we could see a Modern version of it, one that just lets you look at the cards, instead of actually drawing them. 

Sinkhole: As I've mentioned, Wizards frowns on cheap land destruction. They're disinclined to even print it at 3 CMC anymore. We won't be seeing this card anytime soon. 

Natural Order: In a format where Birthing Pod, and Green Sun's Zenith are both banned, we're not going to get something as powerful as Natural Order. Sorry Elves. 

Ancient Tomb: Fast mana is a problem. It always has been. It's the primary reason why cards like the Moxen, Black Lotus, and Sol Ring are banned or restricted in various formats. 

City of Traitors: Did I say that fast Mana was a problem yet? Fast Mana is a problem.

Category 2 - Highly Unlikely

This category is for cards that I can't entirely rule out, but in my judgment won't be making the transition. 

Counterspell: Sadly, I think this is just too efficient for Wizards to push into Modern. They've long since settled on 3 CMC for unconditional, and 1-2 CMC with restrictions for countering spells. 

Force of Will: This is an interesting one. Yes, you can cast it for nothing, but it's not “free”. The life loss matters, and the card disadvantage is real. It's a necessary evil in Legacy and Vintage, to keep combo decks under control. But I'd guess it's still a little too much for Modern. 

Flusterstorm: I’ve been going back and forth on this - between no fucking way, and highly unlikely. In the end, I can’t rule it out entirely, because it is slightly conditional, but it’s still too damn efficient to push into Modern.  

Cabal Therapy: If nothing else, I think the preview of the card Cabal Therapist signals petty clearly that the namesake won't be in the set. It's likely we'll see similar takes like this on other cards like this, though. 

Swords to Plowshares: Path to Exile holds the White, 1 CMC removal spot. It's strictly worse than Swords, and I really can't see them reprinting it. This may see a similar treatment to Cabal Therapy, where there’s a creature (or perhaps Enchantment) which will give you this effect.

Smokestack: This is a tough one to assess. At first blush, I think it's a little complicated. It strongly benefits players who are deeply familiar with the rules, and how to stack things in their favor. That being said, this is a format that includes cards like Knowledge Pool and Eye of the Storm. Regardless, I think that we're not likely to see this in Modern any time soon. 

Entomb: Just too damn efficient. 

Exhume: Again, just too damn efficient. Both Entomb, and Exhume are deeply, deceptively powerful. I don't see Wizards fueling Reanimator on that level in Modern. 

Phyrexian Tower:  Did I say that fast Mana was a problem yet? Fast Mana is a problem.

Volrath's Stronghold: Recurrent reclamation seems a little too good for Modern. I don't think we'll be seeing this one. Sorry Nic Fit lovers. 

Category 3 - Possibles. 

I hesitate to actually try and predict what cards will be reprinted. However, I think these are some that could, and in some cases should see printings. 

Daze: I think this is the one counter spell that's at just the right power level to make it in. You're setting yourself back on lands, which is highly relevant in Modern, and it would definitely shake up the format. 

Baleful Strix: This card is deceptively powerful, and would give Sultai a great push in Modern. 

Pernicious Deed: This would be an excellent reprint. Flexible, but slow and restrictive enough to not be overpowering. A lower-cost, more limited version of O-Stone. 

Karakas: The applications for this card are very narrow, and it's Legendary to boot. I think this would be a safe reprint, and a nice addition to Modern Death & Taxes. 

Rishadan Port: Much like Karakas, the applications for this card are very narrow. It really only suits one type of play strategy, and one that's not super strong in Modern right now. 

Council's Judgment: A solid piece of removal that gets around Hexproof and Protection, but not too efficient at 3 CMC and restrictive in color at 1WW. Strong, but not too strong. 

Fireblast: Maybe you think Burn is too strong already, but I don't. A great closer for decks that sometimes just need that little extra to bring it home. Sacking two lands to cast it, again, while cheating mana costs, is by no means “free”. 

Chain Lightning: Burn is still just shy of Tier 1 in Modern. Recently, it's gotten a boost from Skewer the Critics. Would adding another 3 for 1 push it into a winning position? 

Goblin Welder: Boy this is an interesting one. I don't think that it really has a deck at the moment, but it could easily make one happen. It's very fragile, with only 1 toughness. I'd love to see what kind of decks people brew around it. 

Nevinyrral's Disk: This card is slow, and I don't think it does a better job than Oblivion Stone, which is an analogous card and Disk would be in direct competition for that slot in those decks. Probably safe to reprint, but also probably wouldn't affect the meta much if it was. 

Stifle: Another really interesting case. This is not an effect Wizards does often, and these days it only appears in the 3-4 CMC range. Trickbind doesn't see play at 2 CMC, but would dropping to 1 make it relevant? Hard to say. 

Pyroblast/Red Elemental Blast: Solid sideboard tech, but rarely worth running in the main, unless you're in something like Painter's Servant. I think that both this, and it's Blue cousin could see a printing. 

Oubliette: Oh, Oubliette. Pauper's holy grail. It's a more restrictive version of Oblivion Ring, and Banishing Light, neither of which see any significant play. There's no way it's too powerful for Modern. I actually think there's a good chance we'll see this one, if for no other reason than to plaquate the Professor a bit. 

Vindicate: I think there's a very good chance we will see this printed forward. The only possible reason it might be held back is because it can hit Lands. 

I'm going to group the next three together. Wirewood Symbiote, Quirion Ranger, Birchlore Rangers: These are all very deck-specific cards. Like Burn, Elves had been just shy of a solid Tier 1 deck for a long time. Without Glimpse of Nature and Natural Order, I think it's still a manageable threat. If there's an Elf draft deck in the set, then I think these three are possible. If not, it's hard to see them printing them in a set without context. 

Likewise, these three. Goblin Matron, Goblin Ringleader, Goblin Lackey: Ringleader could certainly see a reprint. I don't think Matron is too powerful, but I'm dubious that it will make the cut. I can't imagine that Lacky will be in. The power level/mana cheat is just too damn high. 

Astral Slide: This would be so much fun in Modern. it would allow for brewing a whole new series of decks. Hopefully, they'd include it with Eternal Dragon and a few other, older Cyclers. 

Psychatog: This would be another really fun card. I don't think it would make all that much of a splash in the Meta, but it's a great bit of nostalgia. 

Veteran Explorer: Is this too abusable? I'm not sure. Without Phyrexian Tower or Cabal Therapy to pair with it, it's hard to say how good it would be. 

Well, that's about it for now. Thanks for taking the time to read through my crazy little list. What cards do you think I'm missing? What do you think I got wrong? 

I’m Tweeting now @23rdPlayable. I’m also occasionally streaming on Twitch as 23rdPlayable. And, as always, you can find me on Facebook in the MTG Arena Players group, where I’m a mod. 

Have fun, Play on, and Be kind to one another. 

On the Consequences of Passing Gas

There's something we need to talk about.

(Oh come on, tell me that doesn't look like Glissa blowing up that construct with a fart!)

Recently, I posted this as a First Pick question from an Arena draft. 

(I took the Chillbringer) 

Among the responses I got was this “the main problem of this pack, is that if it was in real life the man after you would go azorius too…”

This raises an interesting point that I’d like to address. How important is it to consider what you’re passing to the left when making a First Pick choice? 

Not very, honestly. Allow me to explain. 

The person to your left is only passing to you one of three packs, so the impact on what you get in that direction is minimal compared to how you're impacting what they're getting passed. It's also not guaranteed that they’re going to go into whatever color(s) you’re assuming they will. In this example, they could have opened a Red or Black bomb - like Rakdos, the Showstopper - as their pick one and not even be looking at Azorius in their subsequent packs. 

Furthermore, different people value cards differently. In my example above, the following cards were put forth as first picks - Chillbringer, Archway Angel, Swirling Torrent, Senate Guildmage, and Thought Collapse. Also, people have individual preferences, especially in sets like Ravnica, where people identify personally with different Guilds. You might be passing to someone who just never plays Azorius, even if it’s open. So making assumptions about what the player to your left is going to do is almost pure chance and unfounded speculation.

If you’re a newer player, or new to Drafting, I think there’s three major points that take precedence, way before guessing what colors into which you might be putting the player to your left.

1. Understand the format. This includes things like - Knowing which color pairings are supported, knowing which archetypes are considered stronger or weaker, being aware of the "speed" of the format. 

2. Proper card evaluation. Understand the basics of evaluating cards for limited play. I, again, would refer you to the Limited Resources podcast for this. They've done an excellent job of codifying such concepts as the Vanilla Test, CABS Theory, and Quadrant Theory. 

3. What cards are you getting passed? What is open to your right? This is going to inform your picks. Learning how to find the “open lane” will get you a major advantage when making card selections. I'd like to stress there that you will NOT know this in the first two or three picks.

The comment that spurred this blog post was referring to IRL drafting, and I think it's of minimal concern there. In Arena, this becomes even less of a concern, because you're dealing with 'bots that have fixed processes for making card selection, and may have pre-programmed "preferences". Even when we get to the point where we're drafting against other human players on Arena, it should not be a priority. Additionally, I'm sure PvP drafting will be a "League" style of environment, where you're highly unlikely to actually play against anyone with whom you drafted. 

Let me be clear here, I’m not staying that you should never consider how what you’re passing will affect the decision making of the player to your left. But if you never take that into account when you’re making your first couple of picks, that will be the correct decision way more often than it will be incorrect. 

I’m Tweeting @23rdPlayable. I’m also occasionally streaming on Twitch as 23rdPlayable. And, as always, you can find me on Facebook in the MTG Arena Players group, where I’m a mod. 

Have fun, play on, and be kind to one another.

Magic Chats Episode 1 ft Ryan Spain

This week we're launching our new podcast - Magic Chats! We're going to be speaking with a variety of folks in the Magic community. 

Our first interview is with Ryan Spain. Ryan is one of the co-founders of the Limited Resources podcast, and is a former Wizards employee. We talk about Arena development, and where it might be heading in the future.

You can connect with Ryan on Twitter @RyanSpain

You can catch his stream on Twitch at twitch.tv/goingoptimal

I’m Tweeting now @23rdPlayable. I’m also occasionally streaming on Twitch as 23rdPlayable. And, as always, you can find me on Facebook in the MTG Arena Players group, where I’m a mod.

Have fun, Play on, and Be kind to one another.

Zen, and the Art of "Yes, And..."

We Magic players are a strange bunch. On the one hand, we’re clamoring for all things new and exciting, and on the other, every time Wizards makes a change, we rise up like an angry mob. 

R&D must find it very frustrating.

Recently, Wizards announced their first One Million Dollar prize pool, and it’s for an Arena Invitational, with a new and unusual format - Duo Standard. Yes, apparently it’s very similar to something Hearthstone does. And, apparently, it’s also going to be in regular Arena, something called Arena Standard - I guess. They were rather nonspecific in the article. 

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/feature/and-mtg-arena-2019-01-31

But now, we Old-School Tabletoppers must come to terms with reality. Arena is not tabletop Magic. 

Adjusting to that paradigm is something the community still struggles with, I think. Arena shares a heritage with tabletop Magic, and there certainly is some space that both games share, but there are also areas where they clearly diverge. Because Arena, while not is its own game, is in many ways its own format. I think there’s a tension here that people who are new to Magic through Arena might not be experiencing. 

Tabletop Magic tournaments, especially in the competitive scene have always featured Best of Three events, with sideboarding. It’s an integral part of the game, and it’s what makes a diversity of decks and strategies possible. It reduces the chances of just being swept by a bad match up. It also adds a considerable amount of time to an event, as players must make sideboard decisions, which aren’t always easy or obvious. 

But the digital realm is a different animal, and life moves faster there. 

One of the really fantastic parts of Arena is how you can play at your own pace, in your own time without being chained to your computer. If you’ve ever drafted on MTGO before Leagues, you’ll know exactly what I’m talking about. You were absolutely committing 4-6 hours of your life to that event. It could be a grind with lots of “hurry up and wait” as you wait for rounds to complete after you’ve finished yours. But in Arena, you don’t even have to wait for the other “drafters” to make their selections. You can even start picking cards on one day, and finish the next. That freedom is exhilarating. 

Arena, from the start, was never focused on the tabletop player base. Arena was and is intended to be Wizards’ tool to thrust itself into the eSports market. The online world of CCGs and competitive CCGs is different from the world of tabletop gaming, and it’s different in a generational kind of way. Magic is the progenitor of an entire genre of gaming. Not too many games get to say that. It will always have that position of prestige. But it’s also saddled with some archaic attributes which are foundational to the structure of the game. Digital CCGs like Hearthstone have advanced past Magic in some ways. 

One of those generational differences comes in how people “consume” the game. Digital gaming of this sort is quite frequently done on mobile devices, where quick matches are played while commuting, or while waiting for an appointment, if you just have a little time to kill. This different way to game lends itself, almost exclusively, to Best of One. At this point, the number of Best of One matches played on Arena VASTLY exceeds the number of Best of Three, by huge margins. 

I have to admit here, I’m part of that older generation of Magic players. 

My first reaction to hearing about a major tournament that’s being played with no sideboards was - SACRILEGE! What utter nonsense! Who ever heard of such a thing? That sounds like an unimaginably miserable experience! Kids these days and their digital gaming! Why in my day we suffered the paper cuts of *real* gamers! We were out on the playground getting fresh air and sunshine as we ground our cards against the blacktop! 

But time stands still for no card flopper, and that’s OK. The Good Old Metas weren’t always good, and Tomorrow’s Formats aren’t as bad as they seem (with apologies to Billy). 

There’s a rule in Improv called “Yes, and…” It suggests that a participant should accept what another participant has stated ("yes") and then expand on that line of thinking ("and"). For us First Gen (Dominarian), or even Second Gen (Ravnican) Magic players, I think “Yes, and…” is the way to go. We’re NOT losing the things we love about Tabletop Magic. We’re still going to have big tournaments like GPs and SCG events. We’re still going to have FNMs. And we’re still going to have Sideboards and Best of Three matches. AND, we’re going to have all the fun and faster-paced gameplay of Arena. We have the best of both worlds. 

All that being said, I found one thing in this article disquieting. 

“It also removes a huge barrier to entry from competitive play, and on MTG Arena we want as many people participating in the process and engaged in the events as we can muster. Sideboarding solves many problems, but it does so with the addition of a process that is challenging to understand and master.”

“Challenging to Understand”? 

If there’s a flier that’s giving you problems, you board in your Plummet. If there’s an artifact that’s giving you problems, you board in Naturalize. If your opponent is too aggressive, you board in things to slow them down. If they’re very controlling, you board to be more aggressive. The concept is not difficult to understand. Yes it’s challenging to master, but that applies to the entire game. And is it really any more challenging to master than swapping into an entirely different deck between games? At least with Sideboarding, you have some idea of which deck you’re playing against in each subsequent game. 

Wizards has been accused many times over the years of trying to “dumb down” Magic. Frequently, I think this stems from misunderstandings of things like “New World Order”, or just people being inflexible about change, as with the 6th Edition and M10 rules changes. 

This comment, though, really does come across like they’re “dumbing down” Arena because new players can’t handle the concept of Sideboarding. In truth, I think that Sideboards are a novel concept to some people who are coming from other digital CCGs to Magic via Arena. That doesn’t mean that they can’t handle it. It just means it’s a distinctive aspect of the game that they’re unfamiliar with. That’s true of Best of Three play, as well. 

This is probably just another instance of Wizards putting their collective PR foot in their mouth. It’s not the first time, and it almost certainly won’t be the last. I doubt very much that they think that Arena players can’t handle learning how to Sideboard. I think it is them recognizing that digital gaming is different than tabletop gaming. 

Thanks for taking the time to read my little blog. 

I’m now also a member of Team Genji, and you can catch them on Twitter https://twitter.com/TeamGenji

I’m Tweeting now @23rdPlayable. I’m also occasionally streaming on Twitch as 23rdPlayable. And, as always, you can find me on Facebook in the MTG Arena Players group, where I’m a mod. 

Have fun, Play on, and Be kind to one another.